Friday, June 14, 2024

UFC St. Louis predictions: Full card odds, picks for Lewis vs. Nascimento

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UFC St. Louis will kick off this weekend for a Fight Night with 13 bouts for our betting and viewing pleasure.

Last week, we won 1.53 units, going 6-5 with a near miss on Steve Erceg to win the flyweight championship; he blew it by foolishly shooting a takedown in the final moments of the fifth round to lose a decision.

This weekend, we get a card headlined by Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento, a solid card as he heads toward what will wind up being one of the best two month stretches in the MMA world.

The card begins earlier than usual, with the fight beginning at 4 p.m. ET and the main card kicking off at 7 p.m. ET.

The entire card will be on ESPN for the primetime night.

UFC St. Louis predictions

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

Lewis comes in as a decent sized favorite here at -160 as the power puncher in this matchup.

To be clear, this is a lower level heavyweight MMA fight where it’ll potentially look like a low volume fight in which they could wind up staring at each other for 25 minutes.

At one point, this was where Lewis’ career was trending, but that didn’t last forever, he did his a bit of a 180 where he’s hunted for quick finishes and highlights.

His most recent one being a highlight reel knockout victory over Marcos Rogerio de Lima.

But prior to that Lewis was outgrappled by Jalton Almeida over a clear five-round decision loss.

Should this one get past the first round it probably goes to a decision roughly 40% of the time.

Given the odds, 16/1 on Lewis by decision is a great value. Small bets only here.

PICK: Lewis by decision (16/1, BetMGM)


UFC St. Louis will kick off this weekend for a Fight Night with 13 bouts for our betting and viewing pleasure.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Joaquin Buckley looks to show his skills against Nursulton Ruziboev.

Ruziboev is a veteran fighter with a 34-8-2 record, and most of his wins come by finish.

The Uzbekistanian fighter is one of the better power punchers in the UFC, although outside of round one, he might not have much cardio to back that up.

My issue with Buckley as the favorite here is he’s been knocked out multiple times,

Buckley has become a low-volume striker who still has power, but I’m not sure he possesses the the advantage in that area.

Should he look to grapple, it could end in a submission loss as well.

PICK: Ruziboev inside the distance (+175, DraftKings)


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UFC St. Louis full card picks:

  • Derrick Lewis (-162) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento: Small bet Lewis by decision (16/1, BetMGM)
  • Joaquin Buckley (-135) vs. Nursultan Ruziboev: Ruziboev by KO/TKO (+350, FanDuel)
  • Alonzo Menifield (+220) vs. Carlos Ulberg: Ulberg by decision (+320, Caesars)
  • Diego Ferreira (+380) vs. Mateusz Rebecki: Rebecki by decision (+250, BetMGM)
  • Alex Caceres (+180) vs. Sean Woodson: Woodson by decision (+100, FanDuel)
  • Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+205) vs. Robelis Despaigne: Fight starts round 2 (+118, BetRivers)
  • Chase Hooper (+120) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev: Hooper by submission or decision (+150, DraftKings)
  • Esteban Ribovics (-170) vs. Terrance McKinney: Fight goes to decision (+570, FanDuel)
  • Tabatha Ricci (-142) vs. Tecia Torres
  • Trey Waters (-166) vs. Billy Goff
  • Jake Hadley (-130) vs. Charles Johnson
  • JJ Aldrich (+120) vs. Veronica Hardy

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