Super Bowl Sunday is finally here.
After a two-week ramp up, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers finally get to fight over the Lombardi Trophy in Las Vegas tonight.
And it’s not just the players and coaches feeling that Big Game buzz. Sports bettors have been digging into the Super Bowl odds ever since this AFC/NFC matchup was made.
There are endless ways to wager, which makes for a long list of Super Bowl predictions by the time tonight’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff rolls around.
I focus on the moneyline, point spread, and Over/Under total for Super Bowl 58 and give my best NFL picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers.
49ers vs Chiefs odds
49ers vs Chiefs predictions
My first Super Bowl bet was grabbing the Kansas City Chiefs on the moneyline at +115 the minute odds hit the board two weeks ago.
The Chiefs opened as big as 3-point underdogs (-122) at FanDuel, which lasted mere seconds before money blasted that key number and quickly worked this line down to Kansas City +1.5 in the first 12 hours of action.
Over the past two weeks, the K.C. moneyline went from +115 to as low as -105 and after some buyback on the 49ers outright odds, the Chiefs are priced between +105 and +110 to win Super Bowl LVIII.
There has been no shortage of support for the Chiefs, given they’re the reigning champs and looked much stronger in the eyes of the betting public after a 17-10 win in Baltimore in the AFC title game.
I mean, what’s not to like?
You have a head coach who is one of the best bets in football off a bye (Andy Reid is 31-7 straight up following a week off), the most clutch player in the league — who’s also a Top-5 QB all-time — and a dangerous defense that ranks Top 10 in DVOA and EPA allowed per play and just so happens to be playing its best football right now.
Despite the San Francisco 49ers being the Big Game chalk, there seem to be more questions surrounding them entering Super Bowl LVIII.
The 49ers’ defense has been among the elite stop units all year but is buckling at a bad time, giving up more than 770 total yards in two postseason outings. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t the high-powered offense they once were, but we’ve seen glimpses of that output in the postseason — especially with tight end Travis Kelce coming on.
San Fran quarterback Brock Purdy is also coming up short when measured against his K.C. counterpart, even with Purdy’s play helping rally San Francisco in the second half of the NFC Championship. There’s the thought the youngster can’t win the Super Bowl for the 49ers by himself (like Mahomes), but he could definitely lose it for them.
Those sentiments dragged down the line for Super Bowl LVIII and had this market trending toward a pick’em before action on the 49ers showed up and helped counter all the K.C. tickets.
Regardless of the matchup, the Super Bowl underdog on the moneyline always draws support from the casual bettors. And unlike almost every other week of NFL betting, the public is the driving force for movement — not the sharps.
With the spread bouncing between dead numbers, the moneyline makes more sense for either side as there have only been nine Big Games in which a team won the Lombardi Trophy but failed to cover the spread (0-7-2 ATS).
If you’re on the Chiefs like I am, take the best outright price you can right now.
My best bet: Chiefs moneyline (+115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
49ers vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Brock Purdy Over 11.5 rushing yards
George Kittle Over 52.5 receiving yards
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The Chiefs are playing their best two-way football off the season. The defense is giving Mahomes a chance to make magic and he doesn’t shrink on the Super Bowl stage.
Purdy isn’t known for his mobility, but in games against high-pressure pass rushes he’s had to run for his life. Purdy had his biggest rushing efforts against aggressive defenses — 13 yards vs. Tampa Bay, 16 yards vs. Cincinnati, 17 yards vs. Minnesota, 17 yards vs. Pittsburgh — and showed he can make plays with his legs in the NFC title game with 48 yards vs. Detroit’s top pressure pass rush.
George Kittle is Purdy’s safety blanket against blitz-heavy foes. He had monster games against the likes of Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Minnesota, drawing 27 targets for 18 catches and 364 total yards — an average of 91 yards per game against those blitz-happy schemes.
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49ers vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
Look-ahead lines following the Chiefs’ win over Baltimore in the AFC Championship listed San Francisco as a 3-point favorite in Super Bowl LVIII. Once the 49ers completed their comeback against Detroit to win the NFC crown, sportsbooks opened the Niners between -3 and -2.5 on Sunday night.
That line didn’t last long. Within the first 30 minutes of betting action, money on K.C. had cut that down to San Francisco -2, and within the first hour of taking bets, the Super Bowl line movement saw the 49ers as short as 1-point chalk.
After a week of one-sided money on Kansas City and the points, San Francisco action showed up on that shorter spread. There was interest in the favorite from respected bettors and professional gambling groups, which pushed the spread from Niners -1 into a dead zone between -1 and -3.
For the most part, books have bounced between 49ers -1.5 and -2.5 the past week, tinkering with the half-point adjustments as NFL injury news became clearer. With Kansas City expected to be without OL Joe Thuney and DL Charles Omenihu for today’s game, the market consensus is sitting at San Francisco -2 at most books on Super Bowl Sunday.
According to Covers Consensus, 60% of picks are siding with the Chiefs’ point spread as of Sunday morning while some sportsbook operators are reporting 65% of tickets and 77% of handle also siding with the defending champs.
It should be noted the initial adjustment to the Super Bowl spread has been on the right side of the game in 11 of the past 16 championships, although the market moved to the favorite Philadelphia (-1 to -2.5) in last year’s Super Bowl and Kansas City won outright as a closing +1.5 underdog.
The early move toward the underdog is a rare adjustment in terms of historic Super Bowl betting patterns. The favorite normally draws more support early and throughout the two weeks before the game, with the public drawn to the better side.
Only once in the last five Big Games have we seen the dog be the early opinion, and that was Tom Brady and Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV (Bucs +3.5 to +3 and then beat KC 31-9).
Public perception, along with impressive outings on the road the past two games, has won over many K.C. bettors looking for an edge on the opening lines. While Mahomes is the Super Bowl X-factor for many, the defense is the big reason why the team is playing in its second straight Big Game.
The Chiefs’ stop unit has allowed just 41 total points so far this postseason despite facing high-powered offenses in Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best game planners in the NFL, throwing a lot of blitz packages at rival passers but mixing up looks and coverages to keep those QBs guessing.
San Francisco’s offense will need to keep second-year QB Purdy upright. The 49ers’ offense uses pre-snap motion to exploit mismatches in coverage, but Purdy has registered the fourth-longest average time in pocket (2.6 seconds) and will need to get rid of the ball much quicker to avoid the Chiefs pass rush.
Luckily, Purdy has a stacked lineup of game-breaking talent around him. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan finds creative ways to get the ball in the hands of his best players and has two of the most dynamic weapons in RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Deebo Samuel doing damage on the ground and through the air.
The Super Bowl LVIII total opened between 47 and 48 points, which naturally led to a 47.5 industry consensus. This number has stood still for the bulk of the two-week span and as of this morning, 47.5 O/U is the market consensus.
According to Covers Consensus picks, 68% of total bets are taking the Over, and sportsbooks are seeing a similar trend with more than 61% of ticket count on the Over but the handle split with a slight lean (53%) in terms of money banking on a high-scoring finish to Super Bowl LVIII.
This total may climb closer to kickoff, given the fact the Super Bowl is the most publicly bet game in North America, with many first-time gamblers getting action down. Those casual fans want something to cheer for, so we often see heavy leans to the Over the closer we get to kickoff.
The Chiefs have been one of the better Under bets all season, with their offense not playing up to past production and the defense keeping contests close. Kansas City is 6-14 O/U on the season but just 5-6 O/U in road/neutral site games.
Red-zone efficiency hasn’t been great for Kansas City in the playoffs, as it has left a lot of points on the table, with a 6-for-13 touchdown count when inside opponents’ 20-yard lines the last three games.
San Francisco’s RZ defense ranked middle of the pack in terms of TD percentage allowed and has given up five scores on nine red-zone stands this postseason.
The 49ers boast an 11-8 O/U record overall, including a 5-4 O/U mark away from Levi’s Stadium. While San Francisco’s offense has been among the most efficient in the league and averages 28.9 points per game, it does run the slowest tempo with Shanahan’s pre-snap motion chewing up 30.7 seconds per play.
Allegiant Stadium is the venue for Super Bowl LVIII, which is an indoor game with a natural grass surface that grows outside and is brought in for games — the same setting as last year’s matchup at State Farm Stadium in Scottsdale, Arizona.
49ers vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Super Bowl underdogs are 12-4 ATS in the past 16 Big Games. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Chiefs.
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49ers vs Chiefs game info
|Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
|Sunday, February 11, 2024
|6:30 p.m. ET
|Chiefs +2.5, 47.5
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