Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Super Bowl 2024 expert picks: 58 bets to make on Super Bowl 58, 49ers-Chiefs player props, Taylor Swift themes

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Super Bowl LVIII is here, so get ready. The NFL’s championship game is one of the most wagered-on events that we have on the sporting calendar, and it’s expected to remain so, especially with this year’s game taking place in the betting capital of the world: Las Vegas. 

On top of your standard game-centric bets, sportsbooks often feature bets that have little (or nothing) to do with the actual contest, allowing everyone to get in on the action. If you are looking to place a wager or two for this game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, allow us to help you out. 

We will roll out 58 total bets for Super Bowl LVIII below that range from some picks from our CBS Sports staff, novelty bets, player props, and more. 

(Super Bowl LVIII will be broadcast on CBS and Nickelodeon and you can stream it on Paramount+; here’s how to watch)

CBS Sports staff props

Jared Dubin: 49ers to win first half, Chiefs to win the game (+525, Caesars). “The Chiefs haven’t led at halftime of any of their three Super Bowl appearances in this era (they were tied with the Niners and trailing both the Bucs and Eagles), so if you think the Chiefs will win, this is better value than just taking the money line.”

Eric Kernish: Team to score the longest touchdown: 49ers (-142, FanDuel). “The San Francisco 49ers are all about racking up yards after the catch, so it only makes sense they’re the ones to pick for this prop. Expect this to occur in the first half … before Kyle Shanahan’s team likely disappears down the final stretch.”

Jordan Dajani: The Field Goal play (via Caesars): For first scoring play, a KC field goal and an SF field goal are both listed at +360. If you play, say, $20 on each option and one hits, you make $52 total.

Josh Edwards: Christian McCaffrey first touchdown scorer (+360, DraftKings). San Francisco has scored a touchdown on more than half of their first drives this season (10 of 19) while Kansas City has scored a touchdown on just 25% of their opening drives. Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 13 of 18 49ers games this season.  

Shanna McCarriston: Will the last play of the game be a QB kneel? Yes (+200, FanDuel). The Super Bowl is a battle between the two best teams in the league so in theory it should be a close game. Often the game comes down to the wire, with last attempts to get down the field or a field goal to win it all. It is interesting to ponder whether the game will end in a victory formation, or if it will be a game that comes down to the final seconds. I think we’re getting some value on a kneel.

Tyler Sullivan: Travis Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP (+1200, DraftKings). I’m a sucker for a good storyline. If Kelce can repeat what he’s done in the last two rounds accompanied by a Chiefs win, he’ll be hoisting a Lombardi Trophy as the MVP while Taylor Swift and her latest Grammy will be watching along. Sort of feels how this season should end. 

John Breech: Total number of players to throw a pass: OVER 2.5 (+160 on FanDuel). This one is pretty simple; if you think a player besides the two quarterbacks will throw a pass, then you bet this prop. The pass doesn’t even have to be complete, it just has to be thrown. I think we’ll see at least one trick play and this prop will hit. And even if we don’t see a trick play, this prop could also hit if one of the quarterbacks takes a big hit and has to leave the game for a play or two, leaving the backup QB to throw a pass. 

Super Bowl novelty bets

  1. Coin toss: Tails (+100, DraftKings): The coin toss has come up Tails in 30 of the 57 Super Bowls. They say Tails never fails.
  2. Will there be a two-point conversion attempted? YES (+128, FanDuel).  
  3. Team score last to also win the game: Yes (-245, FanDuel). Not a profitable number, but this prop has hit in 10 straight Super Bowls and 17 of the past 18. 
  4. Jersey number of first touchdown scorer: Over 22.5 (-115, DraftKings). This includes players like Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle
  5. Shortest touchdown scored: Under 1.5 yards (-170, FanDuel). There has been a one-yard touchdown in four straight Super Bowls and seven of the last eight. 

Who wins Chiefs vs. 49ers in Super Bowl 2024, and which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. 49ers spread hits hard, all from the expert who is an amazing 22-5 on picks involving San Francisco, and find out.

Player props

  1. Nick Bosa to have 2+ sacks (+350, DraftKings): This was actually one of my top five early bold predictions for the Super Bowl. Bosa has recorded 10 sacks in 11 playoff games, and got to Patrick Mahomes once in their last Super Bowl meeting. This year, he faces off against Jawaan Taylor, who led the league with 20 accepted penalties in 2023. Against the Lions in the NFC Championship game, Bosa had two sacks.
  2. Travis Kelce 20+ first-quarter receiving yards (-110, DraftKings): Kelce recorded 42 receiving yards and a touchdown in the first quarter vs. the Ravens. He had just 15 yards on one catch vs. Buffalo, but that’s because the defense couldn’t get off the field. I think this is a solid bet.
  3. Brock Purdy total passing completions: Under 20.5 (-105, Caesars). The Under has hit in five of his last seven games, including the NFC Championship.
  4. Brock Purdy total passing attempts: Under 31.5 (-140, Caesars). The Under has hit in 13 of his last 15 games, including the NFC Championship.
  5. Brock Purdy total passing yards: Over 247.5 (-115, Caesars). The Over has hit in both playoff games this season.
  6. Brock Purdy total passing touchdowns: Under 1.5 (-105, Caesars). The Under has hit in four straight playoff games.
  7. Patrick Mahomes total completions: Under 25.5 (-125, Caesars). The Under has hit in four of his last six playoff games.
  8. Patrick Mahomes total passing attempts: Over 36.5 (-110, Caesars). The Over has hit in eight of his last 11 playoff games. 
  9. Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: Under 260.5 (-115, Caesars). The Under has hit in two of the three Chiefs playoff games this postseason. 49ers have allowed 260 passing yards or less in five straight playoff games.
  10. Patrick Mahomes total passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-160, Caesars). Over has hit in seven of the last nine playoff games. 
  11. Patrick Mahomes total rushing yards: Over 26.5 (-110, Caesars). Over has hit in all three of Mahomes’ Super Bowl appearances.
  12. Patrick Mahomes total interceptions: Over 0.5 (-110, Caesars). Mahomes has thrown four interceptions in three Super Bowl appearances, including two vs. 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. San Francisco has forced an interception in six of their seven Super Bowl appearances.
  13. Christian McCaffrey total rushing attempts: Under 18.5 (+100, DraftKings). The Under has hit in five of McCaffrey’s six playoff games. 
  14. Christian McCaffrey total rushing yards: Under 90.5 (-115, DraftKings). The Under has hit in three of McCaffrey’s last four playoff games. The Chiefs also haven’t allowed a 90-yard rusher in 15 straight playoff games. 
  15. Christian McCaffrey to score two total touchdowns: Yes (+245, DraftKings). McCaffrey has scored multiple touchdowns in both playoff games this season.
  16. Christian McCaffrey total receptions: Over 4.5 (-135, Caesars). McCaffrey has averaged 5.3 receptions per game in the last four playoff games.
  17. Isiah Pacheco total rushing attempts: Over 15.5 (-130, DraftKings). Pacheco has logged 24 rushing attempts in two of the last three playoff games. 
  18. Isiah Pacheco total rushing yards: Over 65.5 (-125, DraftKings). Pacheco has gone over this number in all but one of his six career playoff games.
  19. Isiah Pacheco total receiving yards: Under 16.5 (-114, DraftKings). The Under has hit in four straight playoff games and five of Pacheco’s six career playoff games.
  20. Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown scorer: Yes (-120, DraftKings). Has scored a touchdown in seven straight games.
  21. Deebo Samuel total receptions: Under 4.5 (-110, Caesars). The Under has hit in eight of his 11 playoff games.
  22. Brandon Aiyuk total receptions: Under 4.5 (-145, Caesars). The Under has hit in his last seven straight playoff games.
  23. Brandon Aiyuk total receiving yards. Under 62.5 (-115, Caesars). Aiyuk has averaged 43 receiving yards in eight career playoff games.
  24. Rashee Rice total receptions: Over 6.5 (-105, Caesars). The Over has hit in two of the three playoff games this season.
  25. Rashee Rice total receiving yards: Under 66.5 (+100, Caesars). The Under has hit in two of the three playoff games this season.
  26. Marquez Valdes-Scantling total receptions: Over 1.5 (-120, Caesars). The Over has hit in each of the last two playoff games. 
  27. Marquez Valdes-Scantling total receiving yards: Over 19.5 (-130, Caesars). The Over has hit in each of the last two playoff games.
  28. George Kittle total receptions: Under 3.5 (+115, Caesars). Kittle has gone Under this number in seven of his 11 career playoff games. 
  29. Travis Kelce total receptions: Over 6.5 (-140, Caesars). The Over has hit in six of Kelce’s last eight playoff games.
  30. Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer: Yes (+100, FanDuel). Kelce has scored a touchdown in eight of his last nine playoff games.

Total

  1. Under 47.5 (-105, FanDuel): The Under is 28-28 all-time, but has hit in four of the last five Super Bowls.
  2. Kansas City Chiefs total points: Over 23.5 (-115, Caesars).
  3. San Francisco 49ers total points: Under 24.5 (-125, Caesars). The Chiefs have allowed just 16.8 points per game this season. Only one team (Packers, Week 13) scored 25 or more points against this defense all year. 

Taylor Swift-themed props

  1. Shake it off: 49ers to score first, Chiefs to win (+350, DraftKings): This follows the game script of last year, where the 49ers went up 3-0 in the first quarter, but blew a fourth-quarter lead as the Chiefs won, 31-20.
  2. Today was a FairyTale: Kelce to score a TD and Chiefs to win (+240, DraftKings): Kelce has scored a touchdown in eight of the last nine playoff games. If you have the Chiefs winning, this is a good bet.
  3. Anti-Hero: Brock Purdy 250+ passing yards and 2+ passing touchdowns (+200, DraftKings). Purdy has hit this prop in six of his 16 regular season starts this season, and zero in his two playoff appearances this postseason. 
  4. Mine: Travis Kelce to record 87+ receiving yards (Yes +190, DraftKings). Kelce has hit this prop in just four regular season games and just one of Kansas City’s three playoff games. 
  5. Look What You Made Me Do: Chiefs trail in the fourth quarter and win the game (Yes +500, DraftKings). When these teams met in Super Bowl LIV, the 49ers led by 10 points in the fourth quarter and Kanas City won the game. Could history repeat itself?

Long shots

  1. Will the final score be a Scorigami? YES +2500 (FanDuel). In case you’re unaware, a Scorigami is a final score that has never happened before in an NFL game. It’s very much a long shot.
  2. Position of first touchdown scorer: Quarterback +1000 (FanDuel). A QB has scored the first touchdown in two of the Chiefs three Super Bowl appearances. 
  3. Super Bowl MVP: Any Defensive Player +1100 (FanDuel). A defensive player has won Super Bowl MVP in 10 of the 57 prior Super Bowls. The last defensive play to win it was Von Miller (Super Bowl 50). 
  4. Super Bowl MVP to be on the losing team: Yes +3900 (FanDuel). This is not a worthwhile bet, but it has happened once before. Chuck Howley (Super Bowl V) is the only player to win Super Bowl MVP while being on the losing side of the game. 
  5. Exact score prediction: KC 24 SF 20 (+15000, BetMGM).
  6. Will there be overtime? Yes (+900, Caesars). There has been just one overtime game in Super Bowl history (Super Bowl LI). 
  7. Isiah Pacheco alternate rushing yards: 100+ yards (+425, DraftKings). The 49ers are allowing the most playoff rushing yards per game (159.0) entering a Super Bowl since the 1966 Green Bay Packers.
  8. Deebo Samuel to score one rushing and one receiving touchdown: Yes (+3000, FanDuel). Samuel hit this prop twice in the regular season.

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