It’s never too early to look at the NFL MVP odds for next year. With what is now basically a quarterback award, this is maybe the best era to be alive for NFL MVP speculation. The best quarterback in football is 27 years old. His rivals are all 26 years old or younger.
In fact, the top 10 of the NFL MVP betting odds list for 2023 are all under the age of 30, except for Aaron Rodgers, who is currently mid-quest to get the ring to Mount Doom. Below, we’ll take a look at who I think are the most likely contenders for the NFL MVP award.
2023 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions
Patrick Mahomes (+700)
This is the obvious choice. Patrick Mahomes is the game’s most talented player and is tied on the NFL MVP odds list with two of his contemporaries. However, last year only proved just how wide the gap is between the reigning MVP and everybody else.
Yes, repeating is hard. The Kansas City Chiefs, however, are poised to avoid the pitfalls that plague repeat opportunities — both for championships and league MVPs. They’re keeping the continuity of his environment intact with the coaching staff and are poised to further upgrade the roster.
Mahomes should be the favorite by himself. We’re approaching Tiger vs. the field territory.
Joe Burrow (+700)
Joe Burrow is an interesting choice and is tied with Mahomes on the NFL MVP odds list at +700. The Cincinnati Bengals got really hot last year at the right time later in the season and were staring a Super Bowl repeat in the face. Then Mahomes had his Jordan-flu game.
Burrow has all the tools to be an assassin and drop dimes all over the field. His calm, cool, cerebral mental state is said to be the equivalent of a first responder. He can become an MVP at any time, but what could be potentially damaging to his chances are his changing environment.
It’s possible both Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon are gone from this Bengals roster, and the offensive line continues to look like Harrison Ford’s character in 1923, Jacob Dutton, after his run-in with a Tommy Gun. Environment matters for the QB position more than any other, and Burrow’s is getting worse.
Josh Allen (+700)
Josh Allen is seemingly on this NFL MVP odds list based on name recognition alone. He took a large step back last year and regressed in a few areas, but none as obvious as one in particular: turnovers.
Allen finished 2022 second in interceptions, second in fumbles, and 23rd in completion percentage.
Prior to the season, I predicted a regression year from Allen, and nothing he went on to do has me convinced he’s poised to get back on track. The change to his environment was monumental. Cole Beasley greatly improved his completion percentage by being able to get into space, and Brian Daboll kept him disciplined. We saw how that affected Daniel Jones.
Daboll isn’t coming back, and I think Allen’s accuracy and turnover problems will be a big roadblock to him winning the award. That said, he’s the best dual-threat quarterback in the league, and he’ll put up numbers.
Who Will Win NFL MVP?
Mahomes should be the lone favorite for the NFL MVP odds. When you step back and examine all of the tools needed to win this award, Mahomes has all of them. He’s physically the most talented quarterback — perhaps we’ve ever seen — and is coming off an MVP and Super Bowl MVP season.
Mahomes’ environment is only going to be better this upcoming year. Additionally, we cannot discount what losing in the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay did to him mentally. It’s easy for young players to taste success early and get complacent. Losing to Tampa reminded Mahomes of the fragility of being a champion, of being the best. There is no guarantee you ever get back to the top.
Mahomes plays every game as if he’s afraid he’ll forever be stuck at the bottom. I believe when it’s all said and done, barring catastrophic injury, Mahomes will win his third MVP award, adding to what already is the greatest start to a career we have ever seen.
NFL MVP Long Shots
Jalen Hurts (+1200)
Jalen Hurts is not considered a long shot according to the NFL MVP odds list, but betting on him feels like a trap. His development truly took off under Shane Steichen. While still needing to make strides as a consistent passer down the field, the leaps he took in becoming a truly dynamic threat as a quarterback are undeniable.
Hurts struggled mightily after returning from injury last year, and his struggles in the postseason were masked by fluke events and a defense punishing much lesser opponents.
Nevertheless, the Super Bowl was his coming out party. Hurts lit up the box score in the intermediate game.
Rather than get to build on that and further develop, he’ll have a new offensive coordinator, a new system, and a steep learning curve to contend with. The Super Bowl will be fresh in everyone’s mind, but the reality is I would expect a step back for Hurts.
Tua Tagovailoa (+1600)
Tua Tagovailoa is an intriguing selection. When healthy, no quarterback better benefited from his environment than Tua did. Tyreek Hill reminded people, with or without Mahomes, he’s a top-two wide receiver. Jaylen Waddle is forever dangerous, and regardless of the running back, the running game is effective when it needs to be.
Let us not also forget the impact having Mike McDaniel as the coach has had. McDaniel has constructed an environment that allows Tua to excel. When Tagovailoa was healthy, he was taking advantage of that environment and garnering real MVP consideration. Health is the question. He had a series of scary concussions, and there is real question as to his viability.
If he has a full return, Tua is a name that has real value based on these NFL MVP odds.