The Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers square off on Super Bowl Sunday. The Niners are favored by 2 and the total is 47.5. The money line is Chiefs +110 and Niners -130.
The Records: Chiefs are 14-6 for the season and 12-7-1 against the spread. Niners are 14-5 for the season and 9-10 ATS.
Coaching Match Up: Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid and Niners Head Coach Kyle Shanahan. Both are exceptional coaches, but Reid has the edge.
Quarterback: Chiefs Patrick Mahomes and 49ers Brock Purdy. Not Mahomes best season because of drops and mediocre receiving corps. Purdy has better weapons to work with. Advantage to Mahomes.
Player Props: Niners RB Christian McCaffrey as an anytime touchdown scorer. The price is -210. He has scored a touchdown in over 90% of the games, regular season, and playoffs. High price but worth investing! He scores. Chiefs Isiah Pacheco over 15.5 rushing attempts. The price is -110. He has 15 or more attempts in 12 of the 20 games. That is 60% of the time. The Niners are susceptible to the run! Take him over the projected number.
The consensus: Chiefs have 60% of the action and the total is 68% going over.
The Selection: The Chiefs and the Niners are in the top three defenses in the NFL. That would lead to thinking that this should be a low scoring game. But the Niners defense has not shown up in the playoffs. They have given up an average of 26 points in the two games. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 14 points in the playoffs. The stats are similar to Super Bowl 57 between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chiefs. The final score in that game was 38-35. This game will not be that high scoring, but the result will be the same!
Chiefs and the over!
Here are more selections that were part of my NFL Super Bowl 311.