Tiger Woods is back and the PGA Tour is heading to its next signature event of the 2024 season, the event he hosts at Riviera Country Club, The Genesis Invitational. Woods’ return to action will be the major talking point throughout the week, and for good reason. However, this is also going to be a loaded event with the biggest names in golf teeing it up and trying to finally break through as the stars of the PGA Tour have largely been eclipsed by lesser-knowns for wins so far this year.
We were finally able to cash in on the year of the longshot as we got Nick Taylor as our longshot bet at 170/1 winning outright in Phoenix. That puts us back in the positive this year, which is a good feeling. However, we need to be dialed for The Genesis Invitational in order to stay there, so we’re going all out to try and make this happen.
There won’t be any Tiger Woods on the betting card this week simply because it’s impossible to say what we’ll see form-wise out of the legend given how long he’s been away from this competitive sphere. We do have some other heavy-hitters on the card, though, so let’s dive right into this week’s PGA Tour expert picks for The Genesis Invitational with all of our best bets for the week at Riviera.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2024 through WM Phoenix Open: 6-30-0, +1.87 Units (1-11 on outrights and longshots | +12.5 Units at Phoenix) | One and Done Total for 2024: $1,143,062.00 (Beau Hossler at Phoenix, $30,404)
Top 10 pick for The Genesis Invitational: Tony Finau (+250)
Because the finishes have been a bit sporadic, you might not realize that Tony Finau has been putting on a ball-striking clinic as of late. Over his last 12 rounds, he’s gaining 1.22 strokes on approach and 1.64 ball striking overall. The issue has been the putter. But Finau has been stellar at Riviera in his career with a pair of runner-up finishes. More importantly, he’s gained strokes putting here in four of his last six starts at The Genesis, including gaining just over 2.7 strokes on the green last year. For a Top 10 with how he’s striking it, I love for him to pop back up and pay off how he’s hitting it tee-to-green.
Outright Winner pick for The Genesis Invitational (0.5 Units): Ludvig Åberg (+2000)
When you think of Riviera, it’s hard not to think about long, accurate drivers with strong approach play. That’s the DNA of Ludvig Åberg, without a doubt. While he was quite off at The Sentry, he’s been back to form lately, including Top 10s at The Farmers and Pebble Beach. He’s gained on approach in the measured rounds of his last three tournaments (course splits mean no ShotLink for some venues) and has continued to drive the ball well. Moreover, he showed at Pebble he’s primed to make a big-time run in the signature events. So I’m taking him to get the win at The Genesis.
One and Done pick for The Genesis Invitational: Ludvig Åberg
Everything that was just said, copy and paste it here. The Genesis feels tailormade to what Åberg does best and, if he gets the hot putter, he could legitimately leave the rest of the field in the dust.
Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young to finish Top 20 at The Genesis Parlay (+505)
Admittedly, these Top 20 parlays haven’t done me much good this season. But if you’re not picking with conviction, then what’s the point? So we’re back to the well and these three players appear to be solid bets to get into that Top 20 mark. Justin Thomas continues to play like an elite ball striker with decent putting and has a T6 and T20 in his last two starts at The Genesis. Collin Morikawa has two Top 6 finishes in his last two starts here and is playing well so far in 2024. Meanwhile, Cameron Young came around in Phoenix, striking the ball well and waking up the putter. With two Top 20 showings in as many starts at Riviera, I like that form to round this out.
Adam Scott to finish Top 10 at The Genesis Invitational (+320)
When you think of horses for courses, you have to always consider Adam Scott at Riviera. Prior to a T65 last year when he was, frankly, out of form, he’d had three Top 7 finishes in his last four starts at The Genesis, including a win. Now he’s back on his game, gaining 1.7 strokes ball striking over his last 12 rounds and more than 0.8 strokes putting over that span too. Coming back to a place where he’s historically thrived, let’s take a roll of the dice on him to record another Top 10 here.
Collin Morikawa over Max Homa and Patrick Cantlay – Tournament 3-Ball (+175, DraftKings)
We’re dipping back on Morikawa with a 3-ball tournament bet that I love. For his part, Morikawa played poorly at The Farmers but, overall, has been stellar in 2024 with a T5 at The Sentry and T14 at Pebble Beach. His approach play has largely been back to elite form and his putting’s been solid. He also has a T2 and T6 at Riviera in his last two starts here. Max Homa is the king of Riv, but his ball striking the past two tournaments has been quite suspect, which doesn’t bode well for this week, the same of which could be true for Cantlay as well. Morikawa has the best package of this group by far, so let’s take him as the slight underdog in this 3-ball matchup.
Longshot Pick to win The Genesis Invitational (0.1 Units): Kurt Kitayama (+10000)
We’re going with a guy who missed the cut at The Genesis last year as our longshot with Kurt Kitayama, but for good reason. He’s been ascending of late, most notably gaining 1.65 strokes tee-to-green over his last 12 rounds. The putter can be troublesome at times, no doubt, but after a Top 10 in Phoenix, he could swing with the big dogs this week and end up with a nice showing at Riviera.