Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Fantasy Football Draft Outlook: Ty Chandler, T.J. Hockenson, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison (2024)

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Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!

As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.

2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Minnesota Vikings

In Week 18, the Minnesota Vikings showcased a strong passing game led by quarterback Nick Mullens, who completed 30 of 44 passes for 396 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

The leading receiver was Justin Jefferson, who made 12 receptions for 192 yards and a touchdown. 189 air yards (47%) and a 32% target share.

Justin Jefferson finished the season 5th in points per game (16.8) despite missing seven games and losing starting quarterback Kirk Cousins. Still, he had a standout season with 68 receptions from 100 targets, gaining a total of 1,074 receiving yards. Jefferson found the end zone 5 times, showcasing his ability to convert receptions into touchdowns. He commanded a 28% target share, and 41% air yards share and finished 8th in weighted opportunity. Before Cousins’ injury, he led all WRs in fantasy points scored (21.7 per game).

Rookie Jordan Addison was close behind with 148 air yards in Week 18 on an 18% target share. The first-year player finished as the WR28 in points per game and WR21 overall through 17 games played.

Addison ended the season with 70 receptions on 108 targets, amassing 911 yards at an average of 13 yards per reception. His long play of the season was a 62-yard catch. He was particularly effective in the red zone, scoring 10 touchdowns (5th) on a 17% target share. Totaled over 1,300 air yards.

He played in all 17 games, contributing consistently to the Vikings’ offense, with a total of 186.3 fantasy points, averaging about 11 points per game (WR28). Addison averaged slightly more points per game 12.2 (22% target share and 4 TDs) versus 10.1 (6 TDs) with Jefferson out of the lineup. Considering the team will likely be without T.J. Hockenson to start the 2024 season coming off a torn ACL/MCL, Addison is a strong bet to return early low-end WR2 fantasy value in Year 2.

The Vikings’ rushing attack was less dominant in Week 18 than the passing game, with Ty Chandler being the top rusher with 69 yards on 12 carries.

Chandler took over as the team’s RB1 over the last five weeks of the season, playing at least 53% of the snaps in all contests. He averaged 10.9 points per game (RB27) and 4.5 yards per carry as the team’s starting RB. Note that his biggest game versus the Bengals came in the one game Alexander Mattison missed entirely.

I wasn’t right about everything last season, but I was correct by strongly fading Alexander Mattison into oblivion. Let this be a reminder that if a No.2 RB cannot get snaps UNLESS an injury occurs to the starter, there are massive red flags present that cannot be ignored. Even though Mattison struggled throughout the 2023 season he maintained RB1 duties Weeks 1-12. He had opportunities to deliver. In yet, he averaged an abysmal 7.6 points per game despite ranking top-10 in carries. He scored zero rushing TDs on 180 carries and 700 rushing yards. Second-to-last in fantasy points scored under expectation. The constant underwhelming led to Mattison eventually losing his job to Chandler over the final five weeks of the season. Even though is under contract with Minnesota next season, you know he’s just keeping that RB1 seat warm for the next better RB to come along in Minnesota. Speaking of Vikings RBs…

This one hit too close to home folks. Cam Akers fell out of favor in Los Angeles under Sean McVay, and he completely missed out on the Kyren Williams role in the Rams’ high-powered offense. Went from a potential RB1 candidate to the trade block.

He was traded to Minnesota for a 2026 7th-round draft pick and was so close to unseating Alexander Mattison. But before he got his chance, he tore his Achilles again. This time, it was his left Achilles. With him on the free agent market, we have finally hit the end of the road with Akers for fantasy football. Goodbye, old friend. I won’t ever forget your six-game stretch at the end of the 2022 season when you led the NFL in rushing yards.

Hockenson commanded a 24% target share in 2023 and was amid a very productive season before going down with a torn ACL/MCL. He was TE4 overall in 15 games played and was .1 points shy of tying Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce as the TE1 in points per game.

Hockenson boomed the greatest when Jefferson was sidelined, commanding a whopping 28% target share and 13.7 points per game. From Week 6 onward, no tight end out did Hockenson in points per game (12.1). With Jefferson, Hockenson was at his worst, averaging 9.5 points per game. That would have ranked at TE8 last season.

Hockenson will undoubtedly be discounted during draft season coming off a major injury, but when he’s on the field he can offer elite tight end upside you can’t get from the majority of any tight ends. The guy has been a top-5 tight end in three of the last four seasons and will likely be back in that conversation in 2024 once he is deemed healthy enough to play. Typically, it’s a 9-12 month recovery window.

2024 NFL Draft Guide

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