Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Betting odds released for which NFL team will draft Oregon QB Bo Nix

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The coaching carousel in the world of college football seems to finally be coming to a close, and the transfer portal seems to have cooled off at long last. While there is about a month until spring football starts to get underway in Eugene, this gives us an opportunity to really focus on the upcoming NFL Draft, and where the many soon-to-be Pro Oregon Ducks might end up.

There are a lot of names on the list of former Ducks who will likely be playing on Sundays next season, but one of the most intriguing guys is quarterback Bo Nix.

Nix seems to be a polarizing figure in the world of draft analysis, as some thing that he could be a first-round pick coming off of the board as soon as the early teens, while others believe that he has a middle-to-late second-round grade.

This past week, FanDuel Sportsbook placed betting odds on which team would end up drafting Nix in April. Here’s where they think he is most likely to go, along with some of our analysis on the potential suitor for Oregon’s QB.

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +4800

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 4, No. 27 (From Houston Texans)

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 35

Starting QB in 2023: Kyler Murray, Josh Dobbs, Clayton Tune


Analysis: How long until Arizona is going to end up moving off of Kyler Murray? If that answer is “soon” then it would make sense for them to grab their future signal caller, and I think the Cardinals could be in a spot to take Nix at No. 27, or potentially grab him as a steal at No. 35.

Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +4800

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 7

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 38

Starting QB in 2023: Will Levis, Ryan Tannehill


Analysis: I think No. 7 is a bit too early to take Nix in the first round, and I don’t think he will still be around at No. 38, so if Tennessee is going to end up with Nix then I think they will have to either end up trading down or trading back into the first round after their first pick.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +4800

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 2

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 36, No. 40 (From Chicago)

Starting QB in 2023: Sam Howell


Analysis: The Commanders will probably take a QB with the No. 2 overall pick, be it Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, or Drake Maye. Because of that, I don’t see a world where they end up getting Nix.

Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +3400

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 1 (From Carolina), No. 9

Second-Round Draft Selection: None (Traded to Washington)

Starting QB in 2023: Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent


Analysis: It feels almost like a lock that Chicago is going to take Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick, but if they end up trading that pick, I do see a world where they grab Nix somewhere in the middle of the first round, or maybe even with their No. 9 pick in the draft, though that is a little bit early.

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +2500

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 6

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 39, No. 47 (From Seattle)

Starting QB in 2023: Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Tommy DeVito


Analysis: I don’t really see Nix ending up in New York, because I think they are out of range to end up getting him. No. 6 in the draft feels far too early to take him, but there’s a low chance that he is still available at No. 39. The Giants could end up trading down or trading up and ending up with him, but I think there more likely options out there.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +1900

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 20

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 51

Starting QB in 2023: Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph


Analysis: We all know that the Steelers are in desperate need of a new quarterback, and the range of No. 20 definitely makes a lot of sense for Nix to be selected. I think that would be a pretty solid landing spot for the Oregon QB, but he would be thrust into the fire right away.

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +1900

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 16

Second-Round Draft Selection: None (Traded to New York Giants)

Starting QB in 2023: Geno Smith, Drew Lock


Analysis: The range makes sense for Seattle to go after Bo Nix with the 16th pick in the draft, but it’s about what their feelings are on Geno Smith at this point. I think it would be a pretty great situation for Nix to land in, with a new coaching staff in Seattle and a chance to grow in a solid foundation.

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +1600

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 3

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 34

Starting QB in 2023: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe


Analysis: I really don’t see New England drafting Nix unless they go that wild route and draft someone like Marvin Harrison Jr. with their first pick — a great talent, but very bold considering they need a QB and there are three established tier 1 QBs in this draft. Should they do that, though, they may be able to get Nix with their second-round pick or trade up into the end of the first round to get their QB.

Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +1300

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 26

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 57

Starting QB in 2023: Baker Mayfield


Analysis: Again, this feels like a range that makes sense for Nix to be selected, though it may be a little bit late. Tampa Bay has to like what they got from Baker Mayfield last season, but we’ve seen before that he may not always be the best long-term answer. Giving Nix a chance to come in and compete for the job with the idea that he can sit and grow in the system behind Mayfield may not be a bad option.

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +1000

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 19

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 52

Starting QB in 2023: Matthew Stafford, Brett Rypien, Carson Wentz


Analysis: The Rams are an interesting addition to these betting odds. They have to feel pretty good about what they have with Matthew Stafford, but he is closer to the end of his career than to the start of it. Taking Nix at No. 19 — I think a very solid range — would make sense, and giving Nix a chance to grow behind a likely future Hall of Famer under an incredibly well-respected head coach like Sean McVay feels like an ideal situation.

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +1000

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 8

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 43

Starting QB in 2023: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke


Analysis: I was honestly surprised to see Atlanta this high on the list, because I don’t think they are in the right zone to take Nix. No. 8 feels like too early of a pick, and No. 43 is likely too late. It feels like the Falcons either need to trade up to get one of the top 3 guys off of the board or trade down into the teens where they could grab the former Duck.

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +750

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 14

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 45

Starting QB in 2023: Derek Carr, Jameis Winston


Analysis: It’s not hard to see Bo Nix turning into a Drew Brees-style quarterback, is it? That’s not to say that he is going to have the career that Brees had, but it’s not like Nix is some 6-foot-6 gun-slinger who is going to operate strictly out of the pocket. If New Orleans were to take Nix at No. 14, some would probably view it as a reach, but there’s very little chance he is still there at No. 45, so if they like him they should take him.

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +550

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 13

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 44

Starting QB in 2023: Aidan O’Connell, Jimmy Garopoolo, Brian Hoyer


Analysis: Las Vegas would be reaching a little bit to get Nix at No. 13, but they could certainly do that if they like what he offers and the early run on QB goes as expected. If they don’t take him at No. 13, it’s hard to believe that the Oregon QB would still be around at No. 44.

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +470

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 11

Second-Round Draft Selection: No. 42

Starting QB in 2023: Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall


Analysis: It feels like there needs to be a middle ground for the Vikings. Taking Nix at No. 11 seems a little bit high at this point in the pre-draft process, but it feels hard to believe that he would still be around at No. 42. Either way, it’s clear that the Vikings need a new QB this draft, so they will need to figure something out.

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Betting Odds: +260

First-Round Draft Selection: No. 12

Second-Round Draft Selection: None (Traded to New Orleans)

Starting QB in 2023: Russell Wilson, Jarrett Stidham


Analysis: It’s interesting that the Broncos have the best odds to draft Nix, because they would have to do it with their first-round pick, or trade to get into the top of the second round if Nix is still available. Most mock drafts have Nix going late in the first or early in the second, so Denver taking him off of the board at No. 12 would be a great result for the Oregon QB.

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