Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Best Super Bowl 2023 bets, odds and picks

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Super Bowl LVII is finally here, and the game will be historic from a betting perspective

And if you are ready to throw a few bucks down on the Big Game, FOX Sports’ betting analysts — Jason McIntyre, Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich (aka Sammy P) and Chris Fallica — are here to give you their best bets for Sunday’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in Arizona (on FOX and the FOX Sports app), with odds provided by FOX Bet.

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Super Bowl LVII

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday in Arizona, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Point spread: Eagles -1.5 (Eagles favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Chiefs cover)
Moneyline: Eagles -133 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.52 total); Chiefs +110 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21 total) 
Total scoring over/under: 50.5 points scored by both teams combined

Kansas City Chiefs


Philadelphia Eagles


What is the point spread?

The Eagles are 1.5-point favorites at FOX Bet, meaning they have to win by more than 1.5 points to cover. Otherwise, the Chiefs cover.

What are the moneylines?

The Eagles are -133 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.52 total). The Chiefs are +110 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21 total).

What is the total scoring over/under?

The Chiefs and Eagles combined score for the game is set at Over/Under 50.5 points.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

I still don’t trust the Chiefs defense. Yes, their game plan was terrific against the Bengals — who were down three offensive linemen — but Cincinnati still had two chances to take the lead in the fourth quarter. And this was not a fluke. The Jaguars had an awful start in the divisional round and still clawed back in the fourth quarter to make it interesting. 

Those games were at home, but this game is in Arizona, and the Chiefs face a diverse offense that appears fully healthy. K.C. has had problems stopping No. 1 receivers (ranking 31st in the NFL), and A.J. Brown should be in line for a monster game (also a fun MVP sprinkle), as the Chiefs have to go heavier to try and stop the run. Give me to the Eagles to cover!

PICK: Eagles (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

My best wagers for this game are two of the same. I’m taking the K.C. moneyline and Patrick Mahomes to win the MVP. The Chiefs are not winning this game without Patrick Mahomes being incredible and having one of the best games of his career. 

This is not a slight at a Chiefs roster with five All-Pros on the roster but more a hat tip to Philly’s roster building and development. The Eagles have the better offensive line and defensive line. This season, their defense has been better, although the Chiefs young secondary has played far better lately. The Eagles have better receivers but no Travis Kelce. But in the end, the Chiefs have Mahomes.

When this game is close in the fourth quarter — and it will be close, as the Chiefs do not get blown out often when Mahomes is healthy — where would you like your money to be? I’ll gladly be happy having money on Mahomes to finish the game over the Eagles, who have not been in this spot outside a handful of players who won in 2017. 

The Chiefs have been loose all week, having the experience of being in this game just two seasons ago. I’ll take the Chiefs to win and Mahomes for the MVP. 

For a deeper breakdown of the game, you can check out my three reasons the Chiefs will win, how each team built their offensive line, my best prop wager for the game and my podcast for every single angle for this contest.

For podcast fans, here’s my Super Bowl LVII preview.

PICK: Chiefs moneyline +110 (Bet $10 to win $21 total)

Picks via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

Mahomes’ AFC title game heroics ruined all my Bengals’ futures, and it’s scary to think how much more effective he could be with extra time to heal his hobbled ankle. Philadelphia will finally face some playoff adversity after blowing out New York and San Francisco (with a fourth-string quarterback). Kansas City’s ability to stretch the field with its high-octane offense should keep this game tight, and I trust Mahomes in closing time more than Jalen Hurts

With all the weapons on the field, it’s tough not to think about the potential for trickeration. It’s no secret that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up wacky plays, and Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni is cut from the same cloth. We know at least two players will throw a pass — Mahomes and Hurts — and I’ll take my chances with a third party joining the fun. 

If this doesn’t hit, I’ll be disappointed.

Getting the hook here makes this a strong play. Las Vegas oddsmakers opened the game total at 49.5 early last week, and with the ascension to 51 everywhere, the first-half total is a little higher, too. I cannot underestimate how key the “24” is for totals. Common scores like 14-10, 17-7 are safe “Under” 24.5, as are the longer shots like 21-3 and 24-0. 

It’s all about the arithmetic on this one.

When healthy, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the most talented Chiefs running back. He’s a threat on the ground and in the passing game, and I’m bullish that Andy Reid will find a way to get him the ball a couple of times around the goal line on Super Bowl Sunday. 

Obviously, it’s more likely this bet does not hit, but it’s the price for me. FOX Bet is dealing +875 (at time of pick), while other books are as low as +500.

PICK: First half Under 24.5 combined points (Bet $10 to win $18 total)
PICK: Chiefs (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)

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Pick from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

This game is extremely close.  After two weeks of analysis, I still don’t see a decisive edge on betting on the side.  

I believe if the Chiefs are up at halftime, even if it’s by just one TD, I think they have an outstanding shot at winning, whereas I think if the Eagles are up by one TD, the Chiefs can still win this game in the second half.  

I’d wait to see if the line gets bet down further and take first half over 24 if you see it, but given how important that key number is in the first half, I would be hesitant to bet over the current line of 24.5.

PICK: First half Over 24 combined points (currently 24.5) if available

Picks via FOX Sports Wagering Expert Chris Fallica:

I did find it interesting that books opened Kansas City as the favorite despite the unknown of so many Chiefs’ injuries. Was it to attract Eagles money at the start, knowing Chiefs money was probably going to come in late? Either way, I certainly wasn’t surprised bettors flipped this number early on. 

In the end, I just don’t (can’t?) want to bet against NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes. Put yourself in the position of the Eagles having a four-point lead with five minutes left and that guy having the ball at the 35. It feels like the ending would be pretty inevitable.

Mahomes’ only three playoff losses have come to the New England Patriots in a classic game, in the Super Bowl against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a patchwork offensive line and last year in a stunning collapse to the Cincinnati Bengals. It almost feels like the Bengals loss has really served as a motivating factor this postseason for Mahomes & Co. 

I’m banking on the Chiefs finishing the job Sunday with a Super Bowl win. 

PICK: Chiefs (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)

Top sports betting stories from FOX Sports:

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