• Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl (+7000): The Seahawks have two picks in each of the first two rounds and are coming off a season where their rookies produced the third-most PFF WAR (wins above replacement) in the NFL.
• Atlanta Falcons to win the Super Bowl (+7500): The Falcons can arrive ahead of schedule if sophomore QB Desmond Ridder improves in his second season or if they trade for one of the most dynamic playmakers at the quarterback position.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft will drastically change the outlook of a handful of teams and shift betting odds along with it. A few teams will soon become popular options to back in the futures betting market.
At this time last season, the Philadelphia Eagles were at +4000 to win the Super Bowl. But with their mountain of draft capital and very favorable salary-cap situation, they rose to +2500 before the season kicked off and offered plenty of opportunities to hedge as they worked through the NFC and ultimately faced the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl 57.
This article aims to identify a couple of teams that are likely to make offseason additions that will be viewed favorably by bettors and bookmakers and will see their odds drop throughout the offseason.
We’ll start with Arjun Menon’s graph on resource-allocation potential and identify the teams in the best spot to make a splash in free agency and the draft before honing in on the best bets to make.
Seattle could be positioned to win the offseason, with the Geno Smith contract situation the one pressing question. PFF’s free agent guide projects a three-year, $35 million per year deal for the No. 2 ranked free-agent option.
The Seahawks could hold the upper hand in contract negotiations, given their resources in this year’s draft, and Smith’s best-case scenario is staying in Seattle.
The Seahawks have two picks in each of the first two rounds and are coming off a season where their rookies produced the third-most PFF WAR (wins above replacement) in the NFL. Hitting on another draft class, securing Geno Smith to a team-friendly deal and potentially landing his eventual replacement will set up Seattle for short- and long-term success.
Seattle has a top-10 roster according to PFF WAR but is tied for the seventh-longest odds to win the Super Bowl. Based on PFF power ratings, there shouldn’t be as big a gap between the Los Angeles Rams (+3500) in the futures market.
With the Arizona Cardinals looking like one of the worst teams in football and the San Francisco 49ers having quarterback questions of their own, the NFC West could be wide open and one of the worst divisions in football.
The best wild-card team in the NFC will also likely take on the winner of the NFC South, and if you believe in Philadelphia’s upcoming regression, this sets up a reasonable path to the Super Bowl. And you can’t tell me you won’t be excited about having shares of the Seahawks when Anthony Richardson is dropping dimes to D.K. Metcalf 50 yards downfield.
Bet: Seattle Seahawks +7000 to win the Super Bowl (DraftKings)
The NFC South will be a popular target for future bettors, given the uncertainty in the conference and the fact that all four teams were massively underwhelming last season.
Atlanta will lead in continuity aspects, as head coach Arthur Smith will have another year to work with his young signal-caller.
Atlanta is also a popular landing spot for star quarterback Lamar Jackson if he doesn’t figure out his contract situation in Baltimore. This would immediately vault the Falcons to NFC South favorites and legitimate contenders in the NFC. They have young talent at the key skill positions, with Smith needing to unlock them and show massive strides in his third season.
It’s not necessarily a make-or-break season for Smith, but if they hit on the upward trajectory, they could be the favorite to come out of this division for the foreseeable future. The Falcons can arrive ahead of schedule if sophomore QB Desmond Ridder improves in his second season or if they trade for one of the most dynamic playmakers at the quarterback position.
Either outcome sets them up to improve dramatically on their current Super Bowl odds before the 2023 season even kicks off.
Bet: Atlanta Falcons to win the Super Bowl +7500 (DraftKings)